The Questions: GLP-1 Drugs and Obesity
If you haven’t, please read my article on Thematic Investing & Megatrends here first.
_“Ozempic”_ is now, essentially, a byword for “weight loss drug”. It and similar drugs are dominating social media trends to the point of being mentioned at the Oscars, it has the makings of a cultural touchstone. Perhaps, even, a triumph of modern science over a modern disease that has plagued developed countries for decades. I have been long LLY and NVO because of GLP-1 drugs since early 2022, but as evidence continues to amass in favour of their utility for a large population it’s worth considering - what other implications does this have? It is not an exaggeration to say entire industries have been built on the back of the obesity epidemic, its drivers and its consequences. So, the questions remain….
Do these drugs work?
What are the impacts on the wider economy of a drug that is nearly as effective as bariatric surgery and acts via, primarily, appetite reduction?
Which companies will benefit from those trends, besides the ones producing the drugs?
Which companies and industries will suffer?
Are those industries at risk right now and, if not, when?
What level of pragmatism is called for in tempering expectations?
This isn’t just about a drug that works, it’s about a drug that works for something that has reached the status of epidemic in most developed markets. The CDC estimates that nearly 42% of the U.S. population is obese, and most view it in as a moral failing that will never be cured by science. I don’t know the answer to the first part, but the second part seems unlikely.
As an investor I am keen to be educated on what has the makings of a plausible solution. if you’re out of hand dismissing something that can result in 20-25% weight loss in a year, in a country where about a third of the population is obese and your profession is “projecting trends in how consumers and businesses spend and earn money” well…maybe don’t do that.
Already, the impact is being felt, as Walmart attested in their latest earnings call:
This article will hopefully serve as a primer for not just GLP-1’s, but a springboard for a discussion on potential secondary knock-on effects in both patients taking them and the wider economy. Additionally, background, some current arguments around these drugs and their effects, some information in general on peptide medicines is provided (due to various behavioral oddities instilled in me during my short time at medical school, this article will have legitimate academic sources) and, of course, there is a basket of stocks which I believe are either positively impacted, negatively impacted or should simply be mentioned.
Is it finally time to bet against the American Eater?
Let’s find out…